Tell us about your current research
I鈥檓 currently working on the topic of polio elimination in Afghanistan and Pakistan. My focus is on estimating the sensitivity of 果冻传媒影音 for wild polio virus in this region, both through cases of acute flaccid paralysis and through regular wastewater sampling. We can then use this within a statistical framework to infer the probability that a lack of observed disease reflects freedom from underlying infection.
A high proportion of poliovirus infections never develop to recognisable clinical disease and wastewater 果冻传媒影音 can detect shedded virus from these 鈥渟ilent鈥 infections, providing valuable insight into residual circulation and risk of ongoing transmission. A key aim of this work is to understand whether expansion of wastewater 果冻传媒影音 could increase confidence to shorten the timeline for certification of elimination after the last clinical cases are observed.
How did you first become interested in infectious disease modelling?
As a maths undergraduate I was looking for a career which applied the theory I鈥檇 enjoyed learning but wasn鈥檛 banking or insurance. I picked up on the idea of statistics and health and took an internship working on clinical trials for a biotech company, at which I met someone who鈥檇 studied at LSHTM and who inspired me to pursue the same degree in Medical Statistics. My masters thesis looked at genetic variants of malaria parasite and their geographic origins and I was particularly drawn to the mapping aspect, thinking about the way in which infectious disease is observed over space. This later motivated me to apply for a position using statistical modelling to forecast an infectious disease across different geographical areas, at which point I joined CMMID and have continued in this area ever since.
Describe your career journey so far
After graduating I taught epidemiology at the Barts medical school through QMUL, but knew I was interested in a more research-focused path. The opportunity arose to return to LSHTM to work on leishmaniasis, which developed my interest in disease mapping, 果冻传媒影音 and elimination settings and gave me the chance to complete a PhD. I鈥檝e since been lucky to pursue these ideas further through different projects on COVID-19, TB and now polio.
What are your goals for the future?
Going forward I鈥檓 interested to explore how climate change has impacted and will continue to impact infectious disease elimination programmes, and what adjustments could/should be made in order to not lose the hard-won progress of the past few decades, to still reach these goals and finally reap the benefits of doing so. I also hope to have a chance to work more closely to the implementation and decision-making side of public health, to experience the process of translating research into practice.
What鈥檚 your favourite thing about working at LSHTM?
Being connected with a global community of researchers and able to engage with other countries and cultures through rewarding collaborative work.
Do you have any advice or tips for other early career researchers?
I鈥檓 not a fan of giving presentations, but I try to say yes whenever someone asks to force myself to practice. It makes the more important ones less of a big deal if you do it often in more informal settings. If you don鈥檛 overthink and say yes straight away, then future you just has to get on with it! Also there鈥檚 an excellent Italian sandwich shop off Goodge Street called Dino鈥檚 Deli that鈥檚 great for lunch if you鈥檙e around Keppel Street.
How can people get in contact with you?
Twitter/X: @esnightingale
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